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Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper (3). Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

MLB futures: Is it safe to bet the Over on Bryce Harper's HR total?

By Chelena Goldman | Last updated 3/18/24

He's been in the league for over a decade, but Bryce Harper continues to grab the spotlight when baseball season gets underway. The upcoming 2024 campaign is no exception, and oddsmakers are apparently expecting big things from the Philadelphia Phillies hitter.

The two-time MVP and three-time Silver Slugger is coming off a solid season, hitting .293/.401/.499 with a respectable 21 home runs. However, DraftKings is setting the bar nice and high for Harper this season, with his over/under for home runs set at 30.5 and the Over slightly favored at -115. The Under isn't far behind it, priced at -105.

Does DK know something we don't? The last time Harper eclipsed 30 homers was in 2021 when he was crowned most valuable player for the second time in his career. Is he about to do that again?

Here are some things to keep in mind before you wager on Harper's home run total.

Bryce Harper staring down Orlando Arcia as he rounds the bases on the home run pic.twitter.com/aFP4l3Xuao
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) October 11, 2023

It's not completely hard to see why oddsmakers set Harper's over/under where they did before spring training. Despite Tommy John surgery in 2022 and not quite playing the full 2023 season, the Las Vegas native was able to adapt to playing a new position -- he's expected to be the de facto first baseman this season -- while also continuing to hit homers in the No. 3 spot of Philadelphia's lineup. Given how he defied expectations in 2023, it seems very plausible that Harper has a 30-plus home run season in 2024.

But before you head straight to betting the Over, there are some other factors to keep in mind.

Harper has been dealing with back stiffness in the latter part of spring training and is missing games. While manager Rob Thomson told The Athletic that he has "zero" concern about Harper being available for Opening Day in just a couple of weeks, his absence is enough to make us wonder if this back issue could play a role in his 2024 campaign. And if Harper's back is too stiff for him to swing a bat, those home run numbers are going to end up being a bit lower.

Harper's age and mileage also have to be taken into consideration. While he rebounded better than expected from his elbow woes, he is also 31 years old and entering his 12th season in the majors. Harper said at the start of spring training that he wants to play with the Phillies into his 40s -- he has seven years left on his current 13-year, $330 million contract -- but there is no guarantee he will rebound from future ailments the way he did last season.

Bryce Harper’s home run registered 111 decibels pic.twitter.com/A00TRLeDds
— Crossing Broad (@CrossingBroad) October 17, 2023

Sure, there is a strong chance that Bryce Harper's back stiffness is nothing more than a blip in his spring training routine and that he will get straight to hitting bombs when the regular season opens up on March 28. However, you may want to wait to bet on his home run total until it's closer to Opening Day. If he is starting the season off with an ailment, that could set up the Under to hit before his 2024 campaign can get underway.

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